Why even a strong El Niño does not guarantee a poor Indian monsoon

Seven Indian monsoons since 1950 have run into a moderate or strong El Niño. Of these, in five years, including 2026, monsoon rainfall levels were at least 10% lower than the long-term average. The IMD refers to this level as 'deficient’. The 2023 season was something of an exception with ‘below average’ rainfall. However, 1997 had ‘average’ rainfall