Trump’s pain makes D-Street bulls gain! IndiGo, Asian Paints, other crude-sensitive stocks rally up to 8% as oil drops below $95

Shares of paint makers, airlines, tyre manufacturers and oil marketing companies (OMCs) rallied up to 8% on Thursday as oil prices plunged nearly 10%, falling below $100 per barrel after weeks. The decline came amid a major setback for US President Donald Trump, whose Republican Party lost control of both houses of Congress in the midterm elections.Brent crude futures slipped below the $95-per-barrel mark to trade under $94, while WTI crude futures fell below $87 on Thursday morning.The sharp decline in crude prices lifted sentiment towards companies that use oil as a key raw material, as well as airlines that have been grappling with elevated aviation fuel costs. Investors also cheered the prospect of lower input costs for paint and tyre makers, while easing crude prices could offer relief to oil marketing companies.Crude-sensitive stocks rallyAmong the airlines, IndiGo shares surged 7% to trade at Rs 5,489 apiece, while SpiceJet shares jumped around 5%. Paint-maker Asian Paints saw its shares rally nearly 7%, while those of peers Indigo Paints and Berger Paints jumped up to 5%.MRF shares rallied more than 4%, with each share gaining Rs 4,995 to trade at Rs 1.23 lakh apiece. Apollo Tyres and Balkrishna Industries shares jumped more than 8%. Oil marketing companies, including Hindustan Petroleum Corporation (HPCL), Bharat Petroleum Corporation (BPCL) and Indian Oil Corporation (IOC) saw their share prices jump up to 7%.Also read | Why is Dalal Street rallying today?Why are oil prices falling today?US President Donald Trump’s Republican party lost control over both the houses of Congress, the Senate and House of Representatives. This came after the US-Iran war spiked energy prices, with Americans beginning to feel the pinch in their pockets. In a lengthy post after the party’s election defeat, Vice President JD Vance acknowledged voter dissatisfaction over the war. He said this, along with rising cost of living and other factors may have led to voters’ dissatisfaction, which in turn led to Democrats’ sweeping victory in the midterm elections.One of the things the data analysts on our side obsessed over was "composition"—whether the electorate looked close enough to 2024 for Republicans to win. And despite polls that showed a Democrat blowout, the data kept on telling us the same story: in some states turnout was merely OK, in other states it was downright amazing, and in no state was it catastrophic. There was a genuine sense of optimism on our team: our people were showing up. So, I asked the smartest data guy I know, does that mean we're going to shock the world? "No," he told me. "We might do better than the polls suggest. But the data is telling us that a lot of Trump/Vance 2024 voters are pissed and planning to vote for the other guys. Our voters are turning out, but they may not vote for us."Well, that looks prophetic now. Our voters did show up. In Florida, for example, the electorate was 9 points more Republican than Democrat, just a couple points worse than 2024. Undoubtedly there were places we could have done better on turnout. But the main problem is not turnout. The main problem is that many people who voted for Trump/Vance in 2024 voted for Democrats in 2026. There will be a lot of infighting and arguing over what happened and why that is. One of the pollsters I really respect told me that our economic messaging wasn’t sharp enough down the stretch. I’m sure that’s true. But the real reason we lost is obvious to almost everyone. Another pollster—one of the smartest people I know in politics, told me yesterday we’d lose the generic ballot by 13 points. I felt negative going into Tuesday, but even I was shocked by this. In his polling, he saw that a lot of Trump 2024 voters were angry and planning to vote for Democrats. He asked those voters who had abandoned us what would cause them to come back on our team. The top four answers, accounting for nearly all of the responses were:1) End the war2) Focus on cost of living/inflation3) Put America First4) Change our relationship to IsraelOur voters showed up. And the above four reasons are why many of them voted for Democrats. This is according to a pollster who nailed the results. While many spent Monday attacking Rachel Campos Duffy for calling for a diplomatic resolution to the conflict, it turns out her political advice was sound. (She’s also a great person.)In the next few months, there's going to be a lot of gaslighting. Expect to hear any number of establishment politicians say the solution to our woes is amnesty. I'm open to the idea that we should change enforcement—by focusing more on businesses that hire illegal labor, for instance. But anyone pushing amnesty is lying to you. The reason we lost is the war. The president himself said so last night. If you'd like to argue it was worth it, that losing the Senate for the next 6 years was worth it, then do so. Argue it was a worthwhile cost to pay. Agree or disagree, that's at least honest.But…