Trump's grip on Congress may be slipping

Donald Trump's grip on Congress is starting to look a little shaky. Four days before the US midterm elections, major polls show Democrats with a clear national advantage in the fight for the House of Representatives. The Senate remains more competitive, but new CNN polling has put Democrats ahead in several key races that could decide control of the chamber.Also Read| What's at stake for Trump, his opponents and 2028 White House raceRepublicans currently control both chambers of Congress. Democrats need a net gain of three seats in the House and four in the Senate to take control.US Midterm Elections 2026: What do the latest polls reveal?The latest surveys from major news organisations and pollsters show Democrats leading the national congressional ballot by 8 to 10 percentage points.PollField datesDemocratic leadReuters/IpsosOct 22–2653% to 44% — D+9CBS News/YouGovOct 21–2353% to 45% — D+8NPR/PBS News/MaristOct 19–2052% to 44% — D+8CNN/SSRSOct 15–1849% to 39% — D+10ABC News/Washington Post/IpsosOct 9–1352% to 44% — D+8AP-NORCOct 8–1247% to 38% — D+9The latest national poll in this group is the Reuters/Ipsos survey, which interviewed voters through October 26. The AP-NORC, ABC News/Washington Post and CNN national polls were conducted earlier and should not be read as a measure of voter sentiment on October 30.The AP-NORC poll found that 47% of voters wanted Democrats to control the House, compared with 38% who wanted Republicans to remain in charge. The ABC News/Washington Post/Ipsos survey found an even wider preference for Democratic control: 59% wanted the next Congress to act as a check on Trump, while 35% preferred Republicans to support his agenda.Trump's Approval Rating: How are American voters viewing the President?Trump's approval rating is weak across the major surveys. AP-NORC found that 36% voters approved of his job performance, while 64% disapproved. The ABC News/Washington Post/Ipsos poll recorded 33% approval and 66% disapproval.The Reuters/Ipsos poll, conducted most recently, put Trump’s approval at 32%. Only 25% approved of his handling of the economy and 20% approved of his handling of the cost of living.Economic concerns are central to the election. In the AP-NORC poll, 85% of voters called the economy an important issue when deciding how to vote, while 84% said the same about the cost of living.The NPR/PBS News/Marist poll found that 44% of likely voters viewed their congressional vote mainly as a vote against Trump. Only 21% said their vote was mainly in favour of him.CNN polling shows Democratic path to Senate majorityThe Senate remains harder for Democrats because they must win several Republican-leaning states. CNN’s latest battleground polls, released on October 29, showed Democrats ahead in four important Senate races:Texas: James Talarico led Ken Paxton, 49% to 43%.Michigan: Abdul El-Sayed led Mike Rogers, 49% to 42%.Kansas: Adam Hamilton led Republican incumbent Roger Marshall, 49% to 45%.Maine: Troy Jackson led Republican incumbent Susan Collins, 49% to 45%.The Kansas and Maine leads were within the margin of error. The Texas and Michigan results gave Democrats a stronger advantage, although neither race was certain. The CNN results give Democrats a possible route to the four Senate gains they need. But they would still have to perform strongly in other closely contested races, including Alaska, Iowa, Ohio and South Carolina.Republicans have an advantage in the Senate map because several competitive seats are in states Trump carried in 2024. Democrats therefore need to win multiple races where the presidential vote favoured the Republican Party.Also Read| Are educated Republican districts going extinct?House is more favourable to DemocratsCBS News’ latest House model, based on its October 21–23 poll and district-level data, put Democrats on course to win 229 seats. It said Republicans still had a narrow path to retain control.The model also warned that the Democratic lead had not expanded in recent weeks and that voters who were uncertain about voting tended to lean more Republican.That makes turnout critical. Reuters/Ipsos found that 46% of Democrats were very enthusiastic about voting, compared with 30% of Republicans. The NPR/PBS News/Marist poll also found higher overall enthusiasm among Democratic likely voters.Reading the tea leavesThe latest major national polls point to Democratic gains and put the House within the party’s reach. The Senate remains unsettled, but CNN’s newest battleground surveys show Democrats with a possible path to a majority.The numbers do not guarantee a Democratic sweep. The result will depend on turnout, late-deciding voters and whether Democratic candidates can convert narrow leads in Republican-leaning states into victories.