The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) officials met for the 3-day Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting starting Monday amid growing expectations of the first repo rate hike in four years.The central bank has kept the repo rate unchanged at 5.25 per cent for four consecutive policy meetings after cutting rates by a cumulative 125 basis points in 2025.The latest RBI MPC meeting comes amid mounting inflationary risks and elevated crude oil prices which strengthened expectations that the central bank could shift towards monetary tightening.In the commodity market, crude oil prices remained below the $100 per barrel mark as it tanked 1.70 per cent to USD 98.59 per barrel.Also read: Explained: How RBI rate hike may impact Sensex, Nifty after 8-week losing streakRBI MPC meeting October 2026 date and time: When and where to watchThe monetary policy decision is due on Wednesday, October 7.RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra will deliver the Monetary Policy Statement at 10:00 am on Wednesday, after which, he will hold a Post-Monetary Policy Press Conference at 12:00 noon along with other members of the MPC.One can watch RBI Governor Malhotra's live speech on official social media handles of the central bank, news channels, along with ET live stream on website, YouTube and other platforms.Experts bet on rate hikeAs Malhotra & co hold MPC meeting in the backdrop of rising inflation risks and uncertain geopolitical landscape, experts expect the central bank to raise repo rate during the October meeting.Union Bank of India expects the RBI to raise the repo rate by 25 basis points in October and deliver further hikes in FY27. According to the bank, the repo rate can potentially tick up to 5.75-6 per cent.“We expect a 25bps rate hike, followed by one or two additional hikes during the remainder of FY27, taking the repo rate to 5.75–6.00%, accompanied by hawkish guidance signalling continued vigilance on inflation,” it said in its MPC report.As per EY, RBI is likely to weigh four key factors at its October 2026 Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting:the US Federal Reserve’s recent 25-basis-point rate hikeIndia’s comfortable growth outlookpersistent inflationary pressures reflected in WPI and CPIsustained above-trend growth in broad money supply (M3)“Chances for a change in the RBI’s policy stance and a 25-basis-point hike in the repo rate are high,” EY said.Also read: RBI likely to hike repo rate by 25 bps to 5.50% in October policy: ET PollRBI MPC Meeting: Key announcements made last timeAt its August MPC policy meeting, the MPC kept the benchmark repo rate unchanged at 5.25 per cent and retained its ‘neutral’ stance, opting to wait for greater clarity on the inflation outlook amid uncertainties over the southwest monsoon, El Nino, geopolitical tensions and global trade policies.Malhotra & co kept the Standing Deposit Facility (SDF) rate unchanged at 5 per cent, while retaining the Marginal Standing Facility (MSF) rate and the bank rate at 5.5 per cent.The governor highlighted that headline inflation was expected to rise, largely due to supply-side pressures from food and fuel, while core inflation remained moderate and was projected to ease after peaking in the third quarter. He further noted that the Monetary Policy Committee needed greater clarity on the trajectory and composition of inflation before taking further policy action.
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